In a compelling lecture, Dr. Jonathan McDowell, astrophysicist and renowned editor of Jonathan’s Space Report, delivered an eye-opening presentation on the realities of military activities in outer space, particularly focusing on space debris resulting from anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. The talk provided both a technical and policy-oriented overview of the increasing militarization of space and its long-term consequences.
Understanding Space Debris and Its Origins
Dr. McDowell began with a foundational explanation of space debris, introducing the 2009 accidental collision between the U.S. commercial satellite Iridium 33 and the inactive Russian military satellite Kosmos 2251. The collision produced over 2,300 cataloged debris fragments, illustrating the scale and danger of high-velocity impacts in orbit, comparable to tens of thousands of truck crashes occurring simultaneously in space. Some of this debris still orbits Earth today, posing significant risks to active satellites and future missions. He emphasized that space debris, particularly from deliberate ASAT tests, contributes significantly to orbital pollution. Notably, events like China’s 2007 ASAT test and Russia’s 2021 test generated thousands of fragments, some of which will remain in orbit for decades. These tests, despite demonstrating technological prowess, introduce dangerous long-term hazards.
The Surge in Satellite Numbers
McDowell presented detailed data showing a dramatic surge in the number of active satellites, growing from around 1,200 to over 12,000 within a decade, largely driven by commercial mega-constellations such as Starlink. Projections estimate a possible jump to 100,000 satellites in the next ten years. While commercial activity dominates lower Earth orbits, military and strategic satellites still occupy significant portions of higher orbits, such as Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and Geostationary Orbit (GEO). This rapid expansion has transformed the orbital environment from a relatively quiet domain into a congested and contested space, increasing the likelihood of accidental or deliberate collisions.
Militarization of Space
The presentation delved deeply into the types of military satellites in use today, ranging from secure communication satellites and early warning systems to missile tracking, Earth observation, and signals intelligence platforms. While countries like the U.S.A. and Russia have long histories of using space assets for defense, new actors and commercial partnerships signal a shift toward more agile and dual-use satellite capabilities.
Dr. McDowell also illustrated historical ASAT capabilities, from early nuclear armed systems to modern direct-ascent kinetic weapons. These weapons, while technologically sophisticated, risk creating massive amounts of long-lived debris. His analysis of gabber diagrams, a method for visualizing debris distribution, highlighted the extensive spread and enduring nature of fragments from such tests.
Legal and Strategic Concerns
While the Outer Space Treaty prohibits weapons of mass destruction in orbit, it allows conventional weapons. McDowell explained how this loophole has permitted ASAT development and testing. He criticized recent trends toward militarizing cislunar space, warning that unfounded rhetoric from military officials might provoke an arms race with China where none previously existed. There is growing concern about potential conflicts over lunar resources and asteroid mining. While the Moon is demilitarized under the Outer Space Treaty, space-based competition over valuable resources (like water ice) could escalate without clear governance structures.
Governance and the Path Forward
Encouragingly, McDowell praised international efforts to reduce ASAT testing. The U.S.A.-led moratorium on destructive ASAT activities has been joined by 37 countries, though notably not by China, Russia, or India, the main actors behind past debris-generating events.
He also outlined the importance of building legal norms and confidence-building measures, such as defining what constitutes “aggressive behavior” in orbit and improving transparency in satellite maneuvers. Technical solutions, like active debris removal and improved end-of-life satellite management, were discussed as essential steps.
Key Takeaways and Lessons Learned
- Space is now predominantly commercial: the private sector leads in satellite numbers, especially in low-Earth orbit, making any military conflict or debris-generating event a direct threat to economic interests.
- Debris is a long-term hazard: even decades-old ASAT tests continue to threaten space operations. Debris disperses widely and can last for generations, especially at higher altitudes.
- ASAT weapons are risky and unnecessary: new technologies like kinetic energy interceptors are more accurate but still create considerable debris. Alternatives exist—such as non-destructive interference—but better still is avoiding conflict altogether.
- Governance is lagging: while technical progress is rapid, policy frameworks have not kept pace. Multilateral cooperation is essential to prevent conflict and ensure sustainable space use.
- Transparency and international dialogue are critical: Whether through informal norms or formal agreements, states must engage more constructively to address the dual-use nature of satellites and potential misinterpretations of behavior in orbit.
In conclusion, Dr. McDowell urged a shift from confrontation to cooperation, particularly as space becomes an increasingly valuable and vulnerable domain. His multidisciplinary approach combined scientific data, military insight, and legal foresight, serving as a powerful reminder that preserving the orbital environment is a shared responsibility.
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Author
This Article was written by Varvara KUT’YINA on behalf of the SLP Armed Conflicts in Outer Space Research team.
Varvara KUT’YINA holds a Master’s in Space Studies from the International Space University (ISU) and is preparing to continue her studies with the Master of Advanced Studies in Air and Space Law at Leiden University. She has gained institutional experience at the Secretariat General for European Affairs within the French government and is currently involved with Cosmos for Humanity. Varvara is also an active member of the SGAC Space Law & Policy Group, with a strong interest in the intersection of space law, policy, and security.
